Perhaps the most compelling "impossibility" argument is the
reported physical activity of certain UFO's (Menzel and Boyd, 1963). In
several "good" sightings (those which, for reasons discussed
below, do not readily fit any of the remaining four
hypotheses), UFO's have appeared to accelerate at tremendous
rates or even make right-angle turns while traveling at speeds
of several hundred or thousand miles per hour. Although they
move in the atmosphere at velocities which surely exceed that
of sound, no sonic booms are heard (they are often essentially
silent) nor do they appear to burn up with frictional heat.
The skeptic says: "Granted that we have a lot left to learn
about our universe, we surely don't expect the fundamental
laws to be rejected. That we may refine them as Einstein did,
it is true, but inertia is inertia, and a right-angle turn at
several thousand miles per hour is a simple physical
impossibility."
This may be the most compelling argument against the spaceship
hypothesis, but there are two counterarguments. First, one can
simply reject the above statement. I do not see how Newton's
laws could be so flagrantly violated, but others (Lorenzen,
1962; Michel, 1958; Vallée and Vallée, 1966) have come up with
various suggestions. Perhaps inertia is the gravitational
interaction between an object and all other objects in the
universe. If this gravitational attraction could some way be
severed (some mysterious antigravity shield surrounding the
spacecraft, for example!), then right-angle turns at high
speeds might be feasible. Would the surrounding antigravity
field also nullify the sound barrier problem? Some think so. I
haven't the faintest idea, but we could be wrong about what is
impossible. Second, one might remember that not all
UFO's perform "impossible" feats. The topic is sufficiently
interesting if only one UFO proves to be a spaceship
from Mars!
Another argument against the spaceship idea concerns the lack
of formal contact with the UFO occupants. Since visiting
spaceships ought to be piloted by some sort of intelligent
beings, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect that they would
desire contact with other intelligent beings, namely us? Or
why hasn't a flying saucer landed on the United Nations
Building to establish formal diplomatic relations?
This argument assumes that we can understand the motives of an
extraterrestrial being. Of course we cannot. How could we know
the minds of such beings? To inductively extrapolate from our
own current sociological approaches to those of other
intelligent entities would be to commit the logical sin of
extrapolation in a most flagrant manner. It is easy to imagine
several reasons why the extraterrestrials might not want to
contact us. Did they plant us here as a colony many thousands
of years ago and are carefully observing our evolutionary
development? Do they envy us for our natural resources and
want to conquer us, although present logistic problems make
such an effort impossible? Are they waiting for us to
straighten out our wars and race problems? Are they simply
uninterested in us as contemporaries, preferring to observe us
as specimens? Entomologists study the honeybees very carefully
but make no diplomatic contact with the queen!
Imagine the Aborigines of Central Australia, who are still in
the stone age and who have not even developed the bow and
arrow. They have had no contact at all with modern
civilization. What happens when a jet plane flies overhead and
one of them observes it? When he tells of the huge, shiny bird
that didn't flap its wings, had no feet, made an ear-splitting
roar, and even had smoke coming out of its tail, surely his
fellows assume that he is crazy. Or if the phenomenon becomes
so common that it must be accepted as real, they could hardly
be expected to deduce from it the conditions of our modern
civilization, let alone our motives. "Why," they might ask,
"don't the intelligent beings who guide this mighty bird land
and trade bone nosepieces with us?" Actually, many of the
Aborigines, even those who have come in contact with civilized
men, still interpret the airplane in a religious context, as
witness the establishment of the cargo cults among these
peoples (Worsley, 1959).
We cannot, then, eliminate the spaceship hypothesis, although
some of the arguments against it are quite impressive. We
should, in deference to the scientific method, examine with a
completely open mind any evidence which might be marshalled in
favor of the hypothesis. Let us consider the four alternatives
to it.
Given certain special circumstances, nearly anyone can be
confused and amazed by the appearance of some conventional
object which under other circumstances might cause no
bewilderment whatsoever. What psychological factors lead to
such misinterpretations? In various instances, reported UFO's
have clearly been demonstrated to be balloons, kites, birds,
conventional aircraft, artificial satellites, planets and
stars, meteors, clouds, natural electrical effects such as
ball lightning (Klass 1966), and optical effects such as
reflections, mirages, sundogs, and defractions caused by
inversion layers in the atmosphere (see Menzel and Boyd, 1963,
and Air Force files). Let us consider the level of certainty
in classifying a given sighting here.
Often, the sighting may be placed here with absolute
certainty. A balloon reported as a UFO was never out of sight
of its launchers. A perplexing light in the sky takes form as
an airplane as its gets closer.
My children woke me at 6:00 a.m. in Tübingen, Germany,
saying that they were watching a hovering UFO over the city. I
grabbed my binoculars and watched the brilliant light move
rather rapidly both toward us and away from us and even from
side to side. After about a minute, I decided to make my
observations more precise, backed up against a doorway, and
aligned the object with a spot on the window frame. Upon doing
this, it stopped moving, and we were soon able to identify it
as Venus, then the morning star. Its laterial motions were
apparently illusions due to our own movements, and its rapid
approach and retreat were due to a thin, rapidly moving layer
of mists which caused it to change intensity.
Within the last year I have positively identified UFO's over
Fort Collins, Colorado (pointed out to me usually by phone) as
a weather kite, the planet Venus, and the stars Vega, Capella,
Betelguese, and Sirius. Some of the stars close to the horizon
flashed red, green, and white, and only a star chart and much
discussion could convince the viewer that he was not observing
a spaceship.
In many other cases, data are not quite complete enough to be
positive, but one can state with a high degree of certainty
that a given UFO was quite likely such and such a conventional
object or phenomenon.
In the most interesting cases, the sighting seems absolutely
to defy explanation in these terms.
One important conclusion becomes apparent: There is a very
high noise level in UFO observations. This is exactly what one
might expect. People do become excited by news stories and
thereby predisposed to such experiences themselves. We cannot,
however, from this high noise level write off the entire
phenomenon as belonging to this category of conventional
objects misinterpreted. Sagan (1963) attempted to do this by
pointing out the great diversity which occurs within the
sightings. This might well be only the noise. Even if
spaceships are visiting us, many people are still seeing
conventional objects and interpreting them as spaceships.
The sightings which do not fit well into the
conventional-objects-misinterpreted category have certain characteristics
concerned primarily with the detail which is observed and with
the nature and reliability of the witnesses. Sometimes other
evidence is also available.
If only a moving light is seen at a great distance, one can
hardly be tempted to run out and meet our big brothers from
Mars. Even a disc or a globe with fairly sharp-appearing edges
might well be an optical effect of some sort. A report is more
impressive when the object is seen at close hand, especially
landed on the ground. A very distinct shape with highly
distinct edges, and a solid, often metallic-appearing surface
is described. Windows or other markings may be apparent.
Lights are frequently an associated part of the observation,
and sometimes (both day and night) the brilliance was said to
be so high that the observer found it difficult to continue
looking at the UFO. Occasionally, one part of the UFO is
described as being in motion relative to other parts (the rim
of a disc may be rotating around the disc.) "Occupants," both
humanoid and otherwise, have been reported in conjunction with
UFO's, landed and flying. The quality of a sighting is always
enhanced when the time of observation is long enough for the
observer to consciously consider what he is observing while he
is observing it. A light that moves by in less than 5 seconds
can hardly produce a very impressive account. In some cases
UFO's have been observed for 1 or 2 hours or even longer.
We are primarily concerned with witnesses. Their background
and training are especially important, and it is valuable when
a single sighting is described by more than one witness. The
likelihood of hoax is decreased if the witnesses were unknown
to each other before the sighting.
In some cases an account may be supported by various forms of
supplementary evidence. There are many cases in which
photographs have been taken while a UFO was witnessed by
several apparently competent observers. Holes have been left
in the ground where a UFO had supposedly landed or vegetation
has been damaged or on fire. Occasionally (rarely),
radioactivity has been detected. In one case a fence was
magnetized where a UFO had passed over it. Many strange
samples have been left, such as liquid residues, "angel's
hair," and other materials. In no case, of course, are these
things by themselves conclusive, since virtually any sort of
evidence could be fraudulently produced. We remain dependent
upon the reliability of the witnesses, but sometimes these
secondary evidences can contribute to an evaluation of the
sighting.
Many radar sightings of UFO's are on file. In a few cases, a
UFO has been simultaneously observed by radar and by
witnesses, both on the ground and in an aircraft. Menzel and
Boyd (1963) have clearly pointed out, however, that radar
evidence is far from positive proof. There are many natural
atmospheric and other phenomena as well as imperfections in
radar instruments which can produce socalled radar angels. We
must consider the argument from both sides, however. Just
because radar angels are not necessarily UFO's, we are still
not entitled to conclude that any unusual blip on the screen
is a radar angel: We should certainly not conclude that UFO's
cannot be extraterrestrial spaceships, because if they were,
our radar net would pick them up. The fact of the matter is,
our radar net does pick up many returns which are not
identifiable in terms of known aircraft (e.g., apparent
objects moving several thousand miles per hour through the
atmosphere). Many of these are undoubtedly radar angels in the
true sense of the word, but we can't say that some are not
spaceships from Mars!
A secondary form of supporting evidence is that of pattern.
While Sagan (1963) fails to see any pattern because of the
noise, other investigators feel that many patterns can be
established from the reports. Figure 1 (UFO's and Mars
oppositions) is an example of such a pattern. Various other
patterns have also appeared. Michel studied the sightings in
France in 1954 and found that occasionally (Fig. 2) they
appeared to fall upon great circle arcs of the earth's surface
(Michel, 1958). It is extremely difficult (Menzel, 1964;
Vallée, 1964) to evaluate the significance of such a pattern.
In many cases, the lines could be due purely to chance. In the
example illustrated, however, with six points upon a single
line, one can't help but be somewhat impressed.
likely that we are not dealing with a conventional object
misinterpreted. The detail usually precludes this. In such a
case, the UFO could be an extraterrestrial spaceship or it
could fit into one of the categories discussed below.
Fig. 2. Eight sightings in France for September
24, 1964
(
click image to enlarge)
Eight sightings in France for September
24, 1964 (Michel, 1958) as reported
in
France-Soir,
Paris-Presse, and
LaCroix (Sept. 26 and 28). A ninth sighting
at Lantefortain-les-Baroches in northern
France is not shown on the map.
Sightings at LePuy and Langeac do not
occur on the line, but the other six fall so
close to the great circle arc indicated that
no deviation can be detected on a Michelin
map with a scale of 1: 1,000,000. Circumstances
of the six sightings on the line
were very briefly as follows:
- Vichy, afternoon:
Football players practicing in a
stadium and spectators saw an elliptical,
cigar-shaped object cross the sky swiftly
and silently.
- Gelles, early night: The witnesses
saw a luminous, cigar-shaped object
cross the sky at fairly high speed and without
noise.
- Ussel, about 11 p.m.: A luminous
red object rose above the horizon and
dived, at high speed, toward M. Cisterne,
who was driving his tractor back to the
barn. The object approached so closely
that he jumped from the tractor and lay
terrified in the field. The object hovered a
few yards above the road, and in front of
the tractor, remaining motionless for several
minutes in complete silence. Surroundings
were illuminated with a reddish light.
The UFO then flew over the tractor and
disappeared over the horizon in a few seconds.
Two other people also saw the object,
and leaves at the top of an ash tree,
near where the object reportedly had
hovered, were dried and curled.
- Tulle, 11
p.m.: M. Besse, with the aid of highpowered
binoculars, watched a luminous
object move rapidly in the sky, changing
color from reddish to white and then to
green.
- Lencouacq, nightfall: A single witness
watched a luminous object arrive at
high speed in silence, hover above a
meadow, and then leave again at high
speed.
- Bayonne, afternoon: Many people
watched three elliptical objects, metallic in
appearance, hover in the sky, and then
move away very rapidly.
III. Psychological Phenomena
Can the UFO's be pure figments of the mind - hallucinations,
dreams, and the like? Probably there are cases in which this
is the proper explanation, but it is a difficult one to apply
to situations in which many witnesses describe with reasonable
uniformity a single UFO. In such cases, the psychological
explanation would have to fall back on areas such as
extrasensory perception, which are really not much more
respectable in modern science than spaceships from Mars. In
cases in which radar observes the object at the same time that
it is observed visually or it is photographed, we would have
to postulate that one mind can project an object into the
heavens in such a way that instruments such as radar and the
camera detect it. This would be as exciting as spaceships!
Certainly we do not know all there is to know about the
operation of the human mind, so this hypothesis cannot be
completely eliminated. And even if the UFO's are spaceships,
psychological factors play an important part in the
phenomenon. Nevertheless, this hypothesis is not really
satisfying. Probably the most detailed study of the UFO's by a
psychologist was carried out by Jung (1959). He was able to
document a great many extremely fascinating psychological
implications of the UFO. In his final conclusion, however, he
could only state that psychological explanations were not
suficient for the phenomenon as a whole.
IV. Hoaxes or Lies
An obvious and straightforward explanation of the UFO's is
that the witnesses are lying or that the object is a hoax. Yet
the Air Force, always acutely aware of this possibility,
explained only a very small percentage of the cases which they
investigated in this way. Often it is very difficult to
imagine that a hoax is involved. The witnesses give all of the
outward signs of being extremely sincere; often they are
emotionally upset by their recent experience. Frequently,
their background and general competence seem to argue strongly
against the idea of hoax. Furthermore, in sightings in which
hundreds and even thousands of witnesses are involved (and a
few such sightings are on record), one must reject the idea
that all the witnesses were lying. If a hoax were involved, it
would have to be the object itself.
Before completely eliminating this explanation, we must
remember that a hoax can be amazingly effective. I saw the
great Blackstone on a stage apparently pass a rapidly moving
bandsaw blade directly through the neck of an assistant in a
trance. A block of wood below the neck was sawed in half
amidst much noise and flying sawdust. Yet this was admittedly
a hoax. Would it be possible to some way cause an illusion in
the sky which could completely fool hundreds of witnesses? I
cannot absolutely say that it would not. On the other hand, in
many cases producing such an illusion would appear to be
almost as great a feat as building a flying saucer itself.
One aspect of the UFO story does seem to be deeply involved in
hoax. This is the so-called contactee cult. Many people now
located over much of the world claim to have had direct
contact with the flying-saucer people. (Adamski and Leslie,
1958; UFO International).
Perhaps the contactee is informed by mental telepathy that he
should report promptly to a certain lonely spot in the desert.
Upon obeying, he is met by a flying saucer whose occupants
are, as a rule, beautifully humanoid and who frequently take
him into their confidence by allowing him to photograph
themselves and their craft, inviting him in for a look at the
control panels, and perhaps taking him for a quick spin,
sometimes to Mars or Venus but best of all to the mysterious
planet on the other side of the sun, unobservable from mother
earth.
Everything about these stories seems to cry hoax. The
proof is typically a series of photographs (which could easily be
fraudulent) and copious quantities of pseudoscience. Someone
who had really contacted visitors from another world should
surely be able to do better than that. Why should visitors
from another world bother with such obscure representatives of
the human race, anyway? Their message is always that man must
cease his wars or be destroyed, but why should such an
important message be given to someone who is bound to be
considered a liar when he delivers it?
It is interesting to consider the possibility that the
contactees are genuine. When considering the UFO phenomenon,
all sorts of wild alternatives come to mind. If the
extraterrestrials wanted to be ignored by the scientific
community on earth, they could hardly choose a better and more
eflective way than the delivering of profound messages to the souls
who presently claim contact!
BioScience January 1967 19
V. Secret Weapons
It is possible that secret devices being tested by earthly
governments are misinterpreted as extraterrestrial machines.
That this explantion might account for the phenomenon as a
whole is, however, quite unreasonable. To begin with, the
performances of the UFO's makes our present rockets appear
puny indeed. Could any modern government suppress such a
capability for nearly 20 years (since 1947)?
Most convincing is the fact that the UFO phenomenon goes way
back into history. UFO enthusiasts, for example, often cite
the first two chapters of the Book of Ezekiel in the Old
Testament as an excellent example of a flying saucer sighting
(Menzel and Boyd, 1963, indicate that it was probably a
sundog, but this is a far-fetched explanation for the details
reported by Ezekiel).
Vallée (1965) documents the sightings previous
to 1947.
He states that he has on file more than 300 UFO sightings
prior to the 20th century, although he apologizes because he
has never had the time to make a thorough search. He considers
his cases to be only a small sample of those which might be
available. They were carefully chosen for their high quality,
roughly conforming to the criteria of good sightings described
above. Some 60 of these 300 accounts occurred previous to
1800, and the remainder were recorded during the 19th century.
The great majority of these more recent accounts were recorded
in the scientific literature, particularly that of astronomy
(often in the annals of the various astronomical
observatories). It is important to emphasize that these are
accounts which are not readily explainable as natural
phenomena. Classic, for example, are the observations in
Nuremberg (April 14, 1561) and in Basale (August 7, 1566)
which have been analyzed in some detail by Jung (1959). Both
of these sightings involved large inclined tubes in the sky
from which spheres originated, an event occurring sometimes in
more recent times (Vallée, 1965, cites 13 examples
between 1959 and 1964). Spheres and discs appeared to fight
each other in aerial dances. The inhabitants of these two
relatively large cities observed this strange phenomenon for a
long interval of time on the dates given.
A great attempt was made to consider the scientific accounts
of the 19th century in terms of the natural universe. They
were referred to as interesting cases of ball lightning or
bolide meteors. Nevertheless, the descriptions are of discs
and wheels and the like, and the behavior follows very closely
that of the modern UFO. These "meteors" would move slowly,
appear to hover, change directions, accelerate at great
speeds, have an apparent diameter two or three times that of
the full moon, etc. In one instance, called ball lightning, an
object slowly emerged from the ocean, moved against the wind,
hovered close to the ship from which it was observed, and then
rushed away in the sky and disappeared in the southeast (for
details, see Vallées book, 1965).
Sightings during the early part of this century were
relatively few. The so-called Miracle of Fatima
(Vallée, 1965; Walsh, 1947), which took place on
October 13, 1917, in a field at Fatima, a small village some
62 miles north of Lisbon, Portugal, is a fascinating tale, to
say the least. Today it would be considered a contactee story,
since three children were supposedly contacted at monthly
intervals (always on the 13th of the month), beginning in May,
by a beautiful, "transparent" woman dressed in white, who
arrived in a globe of light. Following the first visit, other
witnesses besides the children observed strange events (a
buzzing noise, etc.), but only the children saw the "vision."
At the time of the miracle itself, some 70,000 people were
gathered in the field by Fatima to wait for the promised sign.
It had been raining when suddenly the "sun" appeared through
the dense cloud cover. It was a strange sun, however, looking
like a flattened disc with a very definite contour, not
appearing as a dazzling object, but rather having a clear,
changing brightness which one could compare to a pearl. The
disc began turning, rotating with increasing speed as the
crowd began to cry with anguish. It then began falling toward
the earth "reddish and bloody, threatening to crush everybody
under its fiery wake." After an interval of dancing before the
crowd, it retreated back through the clouds and disappeared
forever. It would be difficult to imagine a sighting which
fits the above criteria better than this one. It is also
difficult to imagine that the Fatima "sun" was a secret weapon
being developed by Russia or the United States!
Some Representative Sightings
Since the study of the UFO's must be based on the reports, let
us consider a few sightings exemplifying various points.
1. The Arnold Sighting, Mt. Rainier, Washington, June 24,
1947. Although Vallée (1965) calls our attention to
a fascinating wave of sightings in Scandinavia during the
summer of 1946, it did not occur to anyone at that time to
consider these as extraterrestrial spaceships, but only as
secret rockets being developed by Russia or the United States.
The current sightings date back to that of Kenneth Arnold.
Other better sightings exist for the same period, and even for
several days before (as early as April), but Arnold turned his
story over to the newspapers, the term "flying saucer" was
coined, and the world's attention was focused on the
phenomenon.
Arnold saw a formation of silvery discs flying from one peak
or ridge to another around Mount Rainier in the state of
Washington. By timing the elapsed period from one landmark to
another, he was able to estimate their speed at not less than
1,200 miles per hour. Menzel and Boyd (1963) "explain"
Arnold's sighting as a mirage brought about by inversion
layers in the atmosphere which made the peaks appear to be
separated from the mountains below them. Presumably, their
apparent motion would be due to the motion of Arnold's
airplane. A second explanation proposed by these authors is
that Arnold saw the lens-shaped clouds which sometimes occur
in the area. They present pictures of such clouds (which look
exactly like lens-shaped clouds and not at all like the objects
described by Arnold). They further cast aspersions upon
Arnold's reliability as a witness by describing in some detail
his subsequent actions in attempts to get publicity, etc.
Arnold is supported in his story, however, by the fact that it
fits perfectly into the pattern of sightings during that
period. Various authors (Hall, 1964; Lorenzen, 1962) have
summarized these events, and among them a recurring theme is
that of formations
20 BioScience January 1967
of silvery discs. Such sightings are rare, or essentially
absent, from the reports of more recent years.
It is interesting to wonder about how many apparitions of this
type were observed and not reported. My wife's uncle, Mr. Earl
Page, then a resident of Kennewick, Washington, had observed
on July 12, 1947, a formation of six or eight silvery discs
pass by his small airplane at fantastic speed. Mrs. Page and
their son were present and saw the objects, which "fluttered
as a group for a second or two, and then stabilized . . .
alternating between these two modes." The Pages were flying
north over Utah Lake. Mr. Page told his story to a few friends
who laughed at him, and from then on he mentioned it to no
one.
Any one of the sightings of formations of saucer-like
objects during the summer of 1947 could perhaps be dismissed
from the mind. A large number of independent sightings,
however, produces a pattern which is quite impressive.