Dr. Baker. Fine, thank you, Mr. Roush.

I should like to preface my remarks by stating my preference for the term "anomalistic observational phenomena," as opposed to the term "unidentified flying objects."

Mr. Roush. I observed you were going to say that and I wonder about some of my Hoosiers back home using those terms.

Dr. Baker. It comes trippingly off the tongue.

Mr. Roush. It might not only cause some Hoosiers but some laymen some problems. It might be easier to say UFO's. You may go ahead.

Dr. Baker. I call it AOP.

From the data that I have reviewed and analyzed since 1954, it is my belief that there does exist substantial evidence to support the claim that an unexplained phenomenon -- or phenomena -- is present in the environs of the earth, but that it may not be "flying," may not always be "unidentified," and, perhaps, may not even be substantive "objects." In the following statement I will --

(1) Present a summary of the analyses that I have accomplished to date -- those that have led me to believe that anomalistic phenomena exist;

(2) Explain the probable inadequacy of our current terrestrial sensors in observing and/or defining the characteristics of the anomalistic phenomena;

(3) Suggest a number of tentative hypothetical sources for the phenomena, and the justification for their scientific study;

(4) And, finally, I will make specific recommendations concerning the necessity for new types of closely related observational and study programs which might be implemented in a fashion that would permit the detection and quantitative analysis of the anomalistic phenomena.

Several appendices accompany this report. The first two are in response to Congressman Roush's invitational letter of July 10, 1968, and consist of my biographical sketch and a listing of my bibliography, respectively. The third appendix relates directly to my specific recommendations, and was included with the kind permission of Dr. Sydney Walker III. The fourth appendix presents three reprints of articles (Baker (1968a) and (1968b) and Walker (1968)) that are pertinent to the subject matter of this report.

PART 1. ANALYSES OF ANOMALISTIC OBSERVATIONAL PHENOMENA

UTAH AND MONTANA FILMS

My initial contact with anomalistic observational phenomena -- AOP -- came in 1954 when I was a consultant to Douglas Aircraft Co. in Santa Monica, Calif., serving as special assistant to Dr. W. B. Klemperer, director of Douglas' research staff. The data consisted of two short film clips: one taken in Montana -- termed by us as the Montana film -- and one taken in Utah -- called by us the Utah film. These films were provided to us by the Air Technical Intelligence Center -- ATIC, now the Foreign Technology Division -- FTD -- at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base; 35-millimeter prints were furnished by Green-Rouse Productions of Samuel Goldwyn Studios.

Both films had been taken by apparently reliable and unbiased men using amateur movie cameras and, in each case, there was a credible, substantiating witness present. The films exhibited the motion of rather fuzzy white dots, but the Montana film was remarkable in that foreground was visible on most of the frames.

Preliminary analysis excluded most natural phenomena. More detailed study indicated that the only remaining natural phenomenon candidate for the Utah film was birds in flight, and for the Montana film it was airplane fuselage reflections of the sun. After about 18 months of rather detailed, albeit not continuous, study using various film-measuring equipments [sic] at Douglas and at UCLA, as well as analysis of a photogrammetric experiment, it appeared that neither of these hypothesized natural phenomena explanations had merit, and a report was published by me (Baker (1956)) and forwarded to Brig. Gen. Harold E. Watson, commander, ATIC. Since the description of the circumstances of the filmings and the analyses of the data provided on the films is rather lengthy, and have since been published in the open literature,¹ it does not seem unreasonable to repeat the analyses here. [NCAS Editor's note: This last sentence appears to be a mis-transcription; the two analyses were not presented in Dr. Baker's statement.]

FLORIDA FILM

During the course of this study we also had the opportunity to view some gun-camera photographs taken over Florida. Unfortunately, we could not retain this film, and did not have time available to accomplish a comprehensive analysis. Like the Montana and Utah films, this film also exhibited only white-dot images; however, since a foreground was present, a competent study could have been carried out. Dr. Klemperer and I agreed on the preliminary conclusion -- not supported by detailed analyses -- that, again, no natural phenomenon was a likely source for the images.

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¹For the Utah film, see Baker and Makemson (1967): for the Montana film, see Baker (1968a). This latter reference is included in app. 4 to this paper.

In June of 1963 I received a movie film clip from a Mr. Richard Hall that had purportedly been taken from an aircraft (DC-3) near Angel Falls, Venezuela, at about 12:15 p.m. This film clip was 8-millimeter color film, exposed at 16 frames per second and showed a very bright yellow, slightly pear-shaped object that disappeared in a cloud bank after about 60 or 70 frames. At the time I was the head of the Lockheed Aircraft Co.'s Astrodynamics Research Center. We had developed a small group of photogrammetrists consisting of Dr. P. M. Merifeld and Mr. James Rammelkamp, and were able to undertake a study of the film. Initially, Merifeld and Rammelkamp found little of interest on the film. After their preliminary examination, I expended considerable effort in further analysis. Again, I was only able to draw the conclusion that the yellow object was no known natural phenomenon; but [before] we could make a quantitative determination of angular rates and accelerations, and the bounds of distance, linear velocity, and acceleration, the film was lost (except for a microphotograph exhibiting the object on one frame). There was, however, no question in my mind as to the anomalistic character of the images.

CALIFORNIA FILM

In January 1964, Mr. Zan Overall showed me three cinetheodolite films which had been taken simultaneously by three different cameras of a Thor-Able Star launching at Vandenberg AFB (project A4/01019). These films depicted a white object moving vertically (relative to the film frame) against a clear, blue-sky background. The object was about as bright as the booster's second-stage exhaust, and passed the booster at about one-third degree per second. Rough estimates of the direction of the Sun -- based on shadows on early frames -- and the winds aloft -- indicated by the motion of the rocket's exhaust plume) -- were made. These, together with the brightness of the object and its rate of ascent, seemed to rule out balloons, airplanes, lens flare, mirages, et cetera. Since one of the cinetheodolites was at a site some distance from the other two, a parallax determination of the actual distance and speed of the object could be determined rather easily. Because the films were on loan from the Navy, I was unable to carry out the necessary study and a determination of the precise character of the phenomenon (natural or anomalistic) could not be made. In 1967, I discussed the matter with Prof. William K. Hartmann of the University of Arizona, and Prof. Roy Craig of the University of Colorado. At that time, they were involved in the Colorado UFO Study Group, and indicated that they would attempt to obtain the film for further analysis. Although I am confident that they made a conscientious effort to obtain the films, apparently they were unsuccessful (as of 6 months ago, at least).

PROBABLY NONANOMALISTIC FILMS

In addition to the foregoing film clips -- which seemed to involve data that were the result of anomalistic phenomena -- the Montana film in my opinion, certainly was anomalistic and all of the other

films except for the California film, most probably were anomalistic -- I have also had the opportunity to view approximately a half dozen other films, purportedly of "UFO's." The images on these films appeared possibly to be the result of natural phenomena, such as reflections on airplanes, atmospheric mirages, optical flares, birds, balloons, insects, satellites, et cetera. For example, a recent (February 1968) set of two films were taken, using professional motion picture equipment, by a Universal Studio crew on location. Although rather peculiar in appearance, the objects thus photographed could have conceivably been the result of airplane reflections.

To this date my analyses of anomalistic motion picture data have been rather ungratifying. Although I am convinced that many of the films indeed demonstrated the presence of anomalistic phenomena, they all have the characteristic or rather ill-defined blobs of light, and one can actually gain little insight into the real character of the phenomena. For example, linear distance, speed, and acceleration cannot be determined precisely, nor can size and mass. As I will discuss in a moment, this situation is not particularly surprising, since, without a special-purpose sensor system expressly designed to obtain information pertinent to anomalistic observational phenomena, or a general-purpose sensor system operated so as not to disregard such data, the chance for obtaining high-quality hard data is quite small.

PART 2. INADEQUACIES OF EXISTING SENSOR EQUIPMENT AND SYSTEMS

The capabilities of astronomical optical sensors have been dealt with in a thorough fashion by Page in 1968. The Prairie Network for Meteor Observations (McCrosky and Posen (1968) ) is a good example of a wide-coverage optical system, but as is so often the case, and as Page (1968) pointed out. "*** K E. McCrosky of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory informed me that no thorough search (for anomalistic data) has been carried out." Even so, some astronomical photographs are bound to exhibit anomalistic data. Again quoting from Page (1968), "*** W. T. Powers of Northwestern University Astronomy Department informed me that 'several' of the Smithsonian-net photographs show anomalous trails." As I have already pointed out (Baker (1968b) to be found in appendix 4), the majority of our astronomical equipment (e.g., conventional photographic telescopes, Baker-Nunn cameras, meteor cameras, Markowitz Dual-Rate Moon Cameras, et cetera) are special purpose in nature, and would probably not detect the anomalous luminous phenomena reported by the casual observer if they were indeed present. Their photographic speed, field of view, et cetera, impose severe restrictions on their ability to collect data on objects other than those they have been specifically designed to detect As already noted in the quotes from Page (1968), even if such data were collected, the recognition of their uniqueness or anomalous character by an experimenter is improbable. Examples abound, in the history of celestial mechanics, of minor planets being detected on old astronomical plates that had been measured for other purposes, and then abandoned.

Our radar and optical space surveillance and tracking systems are even more restrictive and thus, even less likely to provide information on anomalistic phenomena than are astronomical sensors. The Signal Test Processing Facility (STPF) radar at Floyd, N.Y. is a high-performance

performance experimental radar having a one-third degree beam width. For lockon and track, an object would have to be pinpointed to one-sixth degree, and even if the radar did achieve lockon, an erratically moving object could not be followed even in the STPF radar's monopulse mode of operation. For this reason only satellites having rather well-defined paths (i.e., ephemerides), which have been precomputed, can be acquired and tracked.

Our three BMEWS radars propagate fans of electromagnetic energy into space. If a ballistic missile or satellite penetrates two of these fans successively, then it can be identified. Since astrodynamical laws govern the time interval between detection fan penetrations for "normal" space objects, all other anomalistic "hits" by the radar are usually neglected, and even if they are not neglected, they are usually classified as spurious images or misassociated targets, and are stored away on magnetic tape, and forgotten.

One space surveillance site operates a detection radar (FPS-17) and a tracking radar (FPS-79). If a new space object is sensed by the detection radar's fans, then the tracking radar can be oriented to achieve lockon. The orientation is governed by a knowledge of the appropriate "normal" object's astrodynamic laws of motion, or by an assumption as to launch point. Thus, if an unknown is detected, and if it follows an unusual path, it is unlikely that it could, or would, be tracked. Furthermore, the director of the radar may make a decision that the unknown object detected is not of interest (because of the location of the FPS-17 fan penetration or because of the lack of prior information on a possible new launch). In the absence of detection fan penetration (the fan has a rather limited coverage), the FPS-79 tracking radar is tasked to follow other space objects on a schedule provided by the Space Defense Center, and again there is almost no likelihood that an anomalistic object could, or would, be tracked.

The NASA radars, such as those at Millstone and Goldstone, are not intended to be surveillance radars, and only track known space objects on command. Again the chances of their tracking anomalistic objects are nearly nil. The new phased-array radar at Eglin AFB (FPS-85) has considerable capability for deploying detection fans and tracking space objects in a simultaneous fashion. Such versatility raises certain energy-management problems -- that is, determining how much energy to allocate to detection and how much to tracking -- but this sensor might have a capability (albeit, perhaps, limited) to detect and track anomalistic objects. The problem is that the logic included in the software associated with the FPS-85's control computers is not organized in a fashion to detect and track anomalistic objects (I will indicate in a moment how the logic could be modified). Furthermore, the FPS-85, like the other surveillance radars is usually tasked to track a list of catalogued space objects in the Space Defense Center's data base and the opportunity to "look around" for anomalistic objects is quite limited.

There are a number of other radar surveillance systems such as a detection fence across the United States. In the case of this fence, we have a situation similar to BMEWS, in which the time interval between successive penetrations (in this case separated by an orbital period for satellites) must follow prescribed astrodynamical laws. If they do not, then the fence penetrations are either deleted from

the data base or classified as "unknowns" or "uncorrelated targets," filed, and forgotten.

There is only one surveillance system, known to me, that exhibits sufficient and continuous coverage to have even a slight opportunity of betraying the presence of anomalistic phenomena operating above the Earth's atmosphere. The system is partially classified and, hence, I cannot go into great detail at an unclassified meeting. I can, however, state that yesterday (July 28, 1968) I traveled to Colorado Springs (location of the Air Defense Command) and confirmed that since this particular sensor system has been in operation, there have been a number of anomalistic alarms. Alarms that, as of this date, have not been explained on the basis of natural phenomena interference, equipment malfunction or inadequacy, or manmade space objects.

PART 3. HYPOTHETICAL SOURCES FOR ANOMALISTIC OBSERVATIONS AND JUSTIFICATION FOR THEIR STUDY

In Baker and Makemson (1967), I discussed the usual candidates for the natural sources of anomalistic observations. For example, some scanning radars -- such as airport radars -- pick up anomalistic returns termed "angels." A variety of explanations have been proposed, variously involving ionized air inversion layers, etc. (see Tacker (1960) and even insects (see Glover, et al. (1966)). With respect to human observation of anomalistic luminous phenomena, some rather strong positions have been taken by such authorities as Menzel (1953), who feels that the predominant natural phenomenon is atmospheric mirages; by Klass (1958a), who feels that the predominant natural phenomenon is related to ball lightning triggered by high-tension line coronal discharge, jet aircraft, electrical storms, etc.; by Robey (1960), who feels that the observations are of "cometoids" entering the earth's atmosphere, etc. The list of hypothetical sources for anomalistic observational phenomena is long indeed, but from the photographic data that I have personally analyzed, I am convinced that none of these explanations is valid.

The analyses that I have carried out to date have dealt with observational evidence that I term "hard data" -- that is, permanent photographic data. Although I will not discuss in detail the analyses of eyewitness reports (which I term "soft data"),¹ Powers (1967), McDonald (1967), Hynek (1966), and others have concluded that overwhelming evidence exists that a truly anomalistic phenomenon is present.

Of course, there are numerous others who have come to a completely opposite conclusion; in fact, it becomes almost a matter of personal preference: it is possible for one to identify all of the anomalistic data as very unusual manifestations of natural phenomena. No matter how unlikely it is, anything is possible -- even a jet plane reflecting the sun in direct opposition to the laws of optics. I'm sometimes reminded of the flat earth debates that I organized 10 years ago in my elementary astronomy courses at UCLA. Some students became so involved in justifying their positions-- either flat or spherical -- that they would grasp at even the most improbable argument in order to rationalize their stand.

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¹Except in app. 3 to this report -- a paper supplied by Dr. Sydney Walker III, concerning a hypothetical case.

Mr. Roush. Dr. Baker, I'm sorry to interrupt, but I'm going to have a brief recess here.

Dr. Baker. Certainly.

Mr. Roush. There is a motion to recommit the military construction bill, and I would like to vote on it. None of my colleagues are here right now, so we will declare a very brief recess, and I shall return as quickly as I can.

(Whereupon a short recess was taken for a floor vote.)

Mr. Roush. The committee will be in order.

Dr Baker, you may proceed.

Dr. Baker. Thank you.

Personally, I feel that it is premature for me to agree that the hard and soft data forces the scientific community to give overriding attention to the hypothesis that the anomalistic observations arise from manifestations of extraterrestrial beings. On the other hand, I strongly advocate the establishment of a research program in the area of anomalistic phenomena -- an interdisciplinary research effort that progresses according to the highest scientific standards; that is well funded; and that is planned to be reliably long term. The potential benefit of such a research project to science should not hinge solely on the detection of intelligent extraterrestrial life; it should be justified by the possibility of gaining new insights into poorly understood phenomena, such as ball lightning, cometoid impact, and spiraling meteorite decay.

There is practical value in such research for the Military Establishment, as well. Let us suppose that something similar to the "Tunguska event" of 1908 occurred today, and that it was Long Island in the United States, rather than the Podkamenaia Tunguska River Basin in Siberia that was devastated by a probable comet impact. Would we misinterpret this catastrophic event as the signal for World War III? What if another "fireball procession," such as occurred over Canada on February 9, 1913, repeated itself today, and the low-flying meteors were on nearly polar orbits that would overfly the continental United States. Would we interpret the resulting surveillance data as indicating that a fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS) had been initiated in Russia? My knowledge of our Air Force sensors, both current and projected (see Baker and Ford (1968)), indicates that they are sufficiently sophisticated so that they would probably not react prematurely and signal a false alarm -- although a careful study of this point should be made. On the other hand, there may exist other anomalistic sources of data that might give rise to a false alarm and perhaps provoke us either to deploy our countermeasures, or even to counterattack.

Before I enumerate the specific benefits this research might confer upon various scientific disciplines, allow me to digress briefly on the subject of soft data. The primary reason that I have avoided the introduction of soft data into my photographic studies and have not involved myself in the analysis of eyewitness reports (such as the excellent ones given by Fuller (1966)), is that I have been unable to develop a rational basis for determining the credibility level for any given human observer. Although they lie outside the field of my own scientific competence, I feel that credibility evaluations of witnesses

would form an important adjunct to any serious study of anomalistic phenomena (see Walker (1968) included in app. 4 of this report). The soft data must involve some useful information content, and it would be extremely unrealistic to neglect it entirely. For this reason, I have included appendix 3 by Dr. Walker, which presents a logical procedure for establishing a credibility level for observers. Walker's report of a hypothetical case integrates the results of general medical, neuroopthalmologic, neurologic, and psychiatric evaluations, and develops a logical basis for assigning an overall credibility score.

Dr. Robert L. Hall is, of course, eminently qualified to comment on the question of eyewitness testimony at this seminar.

If serious studies can be initiated, with the objectives of detecting, analyzing, and identifying the sources of anomalistic observational phenomena, then I feel that the following scientific benefits can be expected:

(1) Meteoritics. -- Although there are a number of excellent meteor observation nets operating today, data collected on erratically moving phenomena (including rapid determination of the location of any "landings" or impacts) would add significantly to the coverage and analyses of meteorites and, possibly, entering comets. Furthermore, the timely recovery of meteoritic debris at the subend point of fireballs would be most valuable.

(2) Geology. -- It has been pointed out by Lamar and Baker (1965), that there exist residual effects on desert pavements that may have been produced by entering comets. Furthermore, any geological or material evidence of the impact or "landing" of extraterrestrial objects would be of great interest. As Dr. John O'Keefe (1967), Assistant Chief, Laboratory for Theoretical Studies of NASA GSFC indicated "Would it not be possible to get some scraps of these ("UFO") objects for examination? For instance, a scrap of matter, however small, could be analyzed for the kind of alloys in terrestrial foundries.

A piece of a screw, however small, would be either English, Metric, or Martian. I am impressed by this because I looked at some tens of thousands of pictures of the Moon and found that the very small amount of chemical data has more weight in interpreting the past history of the Moon than the very large amount of optical data. It doesn't seem possible that objects ("flying saucers") of this size can visit the Earth and then depart, leaving nothing, not even a speck, behind. We could analyze a speck no bigger than a pinhead very easily." I concur with O'Keefe's remarks, and if there exist "landings" associated with the anomalistic phenomena, then a prompt and extremely thorough investigation of the landing site must be accomplished before geological/material evidence is dispersed or terrestrialized.

(3) Atmospheric physics. -- One of the great mysteries today is the formation, movement, and explosion of ball lightning. As Singer (1968) noted:

With respect to "plasma UFO's" Mr. Philip J. Klass(1968b) comments that:

Even if ball lightning is not the primary source of anomalistic data (and I am not at present convinced that it is), any program investigating anomalistic observational phenomena would surely shed significant light on the ball-lightning problem.

(4) Astronomy. -- I have already noted the possibility of cometary entry, a study of which would be valuable to the astronomer. If as some respected astronomers believe, the anomalistic observational phenomena (including perhaps, "intelligent" radio signals from interstellar space) are the results of an advanced extraterrestrial civilization, then the study of the phenomena would become a primary concern of the entire human race. The implications for astronomy are overwhelming.

(5) Psychiatry and psychology. -- Since bizarre events have been reported, the study of eyewitness credibility, under stressful circumstances of visual input, if possible. As I will recommend later: if a competent, mobile task force of professionals could be sent into action as soon as anomalistic events are detected, then reliable evaluation of eyewitness reports (soft data) in relation to the actual hard data obtained, could be accomplished. Even if the event was only a spectacular fireball, or marsh gas, the psychiatric/medical examination of eyewitnesses would still be more informative.

(6) Social science. -- Although not classified as a physical science, there appears to be a challenge here for the social sciences. It has been my contention throughout this report that it is not a prerequisite to the study of anomalistic observational phenomena to suppose that they result from extraterrestrial intelligence.

Nevertheless, it still is an open possibility in my mind. It seems reasonable, therefore, to undertake a few contingency planning studies. In order to extract valuable information from an advanced society, it would seem useful to forecast the approximate characteristics of such a superior intelligence or, if not necessarily superior, an intelligence displayed by an industrial, exploratory culture of substantially greater antiquity. There exist dozens of treatises on technological forecasting; one can key estimates of technological advancement to speed of travel, production of energy, productivity, ubiquity of communications, etc. There have been many debates on the technical capabilities or limits on the capabilities of advanced extraterrestrial societies (for example, see Markowitz (1967) and Rosa, et al. (1967). Often intermixed with these technological capabilities arguments, however, are very dubious comments concerning the psychological motivations, behavioral patterns, and unbased projections of the social motivations of an advanced society. Hypothetical questions are often raised such as, "*** if there are flying saucers around, why don't they contact us directly? *** I would if I were investigating another civilization." Such comments are made on extremely thin ice, for, to my knowledge, no concerted study has been carried out in the

area of forecasting the social characteristics of an advanced extraterrestrial civilization. Philosophers, social scientists, and others usually undertake studies of rather theoretical problems. (See Wooldridge (1968) and Minas and Ackoff (1964). If only a quantitative index or indices of social advancement could be developed that, say, would differentiate us from the Romans in our interpersonal and intersociety relationships (for example, tendencies toward fewer crimes of violence, fewer wars, etc.), then we might be better equipped to make rational extrapolations from our own to an advanced society. In fact, such as index, if it could be developed might even be beneficial in guiding our existing earth-based society.

(7) Serendipity. -- In addition to the value of anomalistic phenomena studies to these specific scientific disciplines, there is always serendipity. Any scientific study of this nature is potentially capable of giving substantial dividends in terms of "spin-off." For example: in improved techniques in radar and optical sensor design and control; in giving a reliable quantitative credibility level to witness' statements in court; or in deciphering and/or analyzing anomalistic radio signals from interstellar space.

PART 4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

For the past 16 years I have seriously (albeit sporadically) followed the analyses of "UFO" or "flying saucer" reports -- both scientific and quasi-scientific. It is my conclusion that there is only so much quantitative data that we can squeeze out of vast amounts of data on anomalistic observational phenomena that has been collected to date. I believe that we will simply frustrate ourselves by endless arguments over past, incomplete data scenarios; what we need is more sophisticated analyses of fresh anomalistic observational data. We must come up with more than just a rehash of old data.

I emphasize that it is very unlikely that existing optical and radar monitoring systems would collect the type of quantitative data that is required to identify and study the phenomena. Moreover, we currently have no quantitative basis upon which to evaluate and rank (according to credibility) the myriad of eyewitness reports. Thus continuing to "massage" past anomalistic events would seem to be a waste of our scientific resources. In balance, then, I conclude that:

(1) We have not now, nor have we been in the past, able to achieve a complete -- or even partially complete -- surveillance of space in the vicinity of the earth, comprehensive enough to betray the presence of, or provide quantitative information on, anomalistic phenomena.

(2) Hard data on anomalistic observational phenomena do, in fact exist, but they are of poor quality, because of the inadequacies of equipment employed in obtaining them.

(3) Soft data on anomalistic phenomena also exist, but we have no quantitative procedure to evaluate their credibility and develop clear-cut conclusions on the characteristics of the anomalistic phenomena.

(4) It follows from the scientific method that an experiment or experiments should be devised, and closely related study programs be initiated expressly to define the anomalistic data better.

(5) In order to justify such an experiment and associated studies, it is not necessary to presuppose the existence of intelligent extraterrestrial life operating in the environs of the earth, or to make dubious speculations either concerning "their" advanced scientific and engineering capabilities or "their" psychological motivations and behavioral patterns.

In the light of these conclusions, I will make the following recommendations:

(1) In order to obtain information-rich hard and soft data on anomalistic phenomena, an interdisciplinary, mobile task force or team of highly qualified scientists should be organized. This team should be established on a long-term basis, well funded, and equipped to swing into action and investigate reports on anomalistic phenomena immediately after such reports are received. Because of the relatively low frequency of substantive reports (see p. 1968), immediate results should not be anticipated, but in the interim periods between their investigations in the field, their time could be productively spent in making thorough analyses of data collected by them previously, and in "sharpening up" their analysis tools.

(2) In concert with the aforementioned task force, a sensor system should be developed expressly for detecting and recording anomalistic observational phenomena for hard-data evaluation. The system might include one or more phased-array radars (certainly not having the cost or capability of the FPS-85, but operating in a limited fashion that would be similar to the FPS-85). A phased-array radar would have the advantage over a conventional "dish" radar in that it could track at high rates and divide its energy in an optimum fashion between detection and tracking. The control system would be unique, and would necessitate the development of a sequential data-processing controller that would increase the state variables describing the object's path from a six-dimensional position and velocity estimation to a 12-dimensional acceleration and jerk estimation (Baker (1967)) in order to follow erratic motion.

In addition, the data base would have to be especially designed, to avoid manmade space objects and (if possible) airplanes, birds, common meteors, etc. It should, however, be designed to detect and track nearby cometoids, macrometeorites (fireballs), ball lightning, and any other erratic or anomalistic object within its range. Optical cameras (including spectrographic equipment) should be slaved to the radar, in order to provide more comprehensive data. Because of the aforementioned low frequency of anomalistic data, alarms from the system should not occur very frequently and could be communicated directly to the recommended task force.

(3) A proposed new-generation, space-based long-wave-length infrared surveillance sensor system should be funded and the associated software should be modified to include provisions for the addition of anomalistic objects in its data base. The specific sensor system cannot be identified for reasons of security, but details can probably be obtained from the Air Force. This sensor system, in particular, could provide some data (perhaps incomplete) on anomalistic, objects which exhibit a slight temperature contrast with the space background, on a basis of noninterference with its military mission. The system represents a promising technological development, and no other novel

technique introduced in recent years offers more promise for space surveillance. In my view, the scientific principles underlying the proposed surveillance system are sound, and a developmental measurements program should be initiated.

(4) The software designed for the FPS-85 phase-array radar at Eglin Air Force Base be extended in order to provide a capability to detect and track anomalistic space objects. The relatively inexpensive modification could include the implementation of tracking techniques such as those outlined in Baker (1967). It should, however, be clearly borne in mind that only a limited amount of tracking time (about 30 percent) could be devoted to this endeavor, because of the overriding importance of the surveillance of manmade space objects which is the basic responsibility of this radar.

(5) Various "listening post" projects should be reestablished (using existing instruments) in order to seek out possible communications from other intelligent life sources in the universe. See, for example, Shklovskii and Sagan (1966), chapters 27, 28, 30, and 34.

(6) Technological and behavioral pattern forecasting studies should be encouraged in order to give at least limited insight into the gross characteristics of an advanced civilization. These studies (probably not Government funded) should include the social-psychological implications of anomalistic observational phenomena, as well as the psychological impact upon our own culture that could be expected from "contact" with an advanced civilization. (See ch. 33 of Shklovskii and Sagan (1966).)

(7) Studies should be initiated in the psychiatric/medical problems of evaluating the credibility of witness' testimony concerning bizarre or unusual events. (See app. 3 of this report.)

All of the foregoing recommendations involve the expenditure of funds, and we are all well aware of the severe limitations on the funding of research today. On the other hand, I feel that one of the traps that we have fallen into, so far, is reliance on quick-look, undermanned and underfunded programs to investigate a tremendous quantity of often ambiguous data. I would discourage such programs as being diversionary, in regard to the overall scientific goal.

The goal of understanding anomalistic phenomena, if attained, may be of unprecedented importance to the human race. We must get a positive scientific program off the ground; a program that progresses according to the highest scientific standards, has specific objectives, is well funded, and long term.

Thank you.

(The appendixes and attachments to Dr. Baker's statement follow:)

PART 1

ABSTRACTS FROM BAKER (1956) RELATED TO THE UTAH
FILM -- ANALYSIS OF PHOTOGRAPHIC MATERIAL

PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE "UTAH"
FILM TRACKING UFO'S

Several Unidentified Flying Objects (UFO's) were sighted and photographed at about 11:10 MST on July 2, 1952 by Delbert C. Newhouse at a point on State Highway 30, seven miles north of Tremonton, Utah (latitude 41° 50", longitude

112° 10'). Mr. Newhouse, a Chief Warrant Officer in the U.S. Navy,* was in transit from Washington, D.C. to Portland, Oregon.

He, his wife and their two children were making the trip by car. Shortly after passing through the city of Tremonton, his wife noticed a group of strange shining objects in the air off towards the eastern horizon. She called them to her husband's attention and prevailed upon him to stop the car. When he got out, he observed the objects (twelve to fourteen of them) to be directly overhead and milling about. He described them as "gun metal colored objects shaped like two saucers, one inverted on top of the other." He estimated that they subtended "about the same angle as B-29's at 10,000 feet" (about half a degree -- i.e., about the angular diameter of the moon). (Next, he ran to the trunk of his car, took out his Bell and Howell Automaster 16mm movie camera equipped with a 3" telephoto lens, loaded it, focused it at infinity and began shooting. There was no reference point above the horizon so he was unable to estimate absolute size, speed or distance. He reports that one of the objects reversed its course and proceeded away from the rest of the group; he held the camera still and allowed this single object to pass across the field of view of the camera, picking it up later in its course. He repeated this for three passes.

During the filming, Newhouse changed the iris stop of the camera from f/8 to f/16. The density of the film can be seen to change markedly at a point about 30% through the sequence. The camera was operated at 16 fps.

The color film (Daylight Kodachrome) after processing was submitted to his superiors. The Navy forwarded the film to the USAF-ATIC where the film was studied for several months. According to Al Chop (then with ATlC and presently with DAC) Air Force personnel were convinced that the objects were not airplanes; on the other hand the hypothesis that the camera might have been out of focus and the objects soaring gulls could neither be confirmed nor denied. Mr. Chop's remarks are essentially substantiated by Capt. Edward Ruppelt, reference (1) then head of Project "Blue Book" for ATIC.

A 35mm reprint of the Newhouse "Utah" film was submitted to Douglas Aircraft Company for examination. Visual study of the reprints on the Recordak and astronomical plate measuring engine revealed the following: The film comprises about 1,200 frames; on most of the frames there appear many round white dots, some elliptical. The dots often seem clustered in constellations, or formations which are recognizable for as long as seventeen seconds. A relative motion plot (obtained from an overlay vellum trace on the Recordak) of two typical formations are presented. The objects seem to cluster in groups of two's and three's. On some frames they flare up and then disappear from view in 0.25 seconds or less and sometimes they appear as a randomly scattered "twinkling" of dots. The dot images themselves show no structure; they are white and have no color fringes. Examination under a microscope shows the camera to be well focused as the edges of the images are sharp and clear on many of the properly exposed frames (of the original print). Angular diameters range from about 0.001,6 to 0.000,4 radians. Their pattern of motion is essentially a curvilinear milling about. Sometimes the objects appear to circle about each other. There are no other objects in the field of view which might give a clue as to the absolute motion of the cluster.

In the overlay trace, the frame of reference is determined by a certain object whose relative motion during a sequence of frames remains rather constant. This object is used as a reference point and the lower edge of the frame as abscissa. Assuming the camera to have been kept reasonably uncanted, the abscissa would be horizontal and the ordinate vertical. In the overlay trace, the particular frame itself is used as the reference. Assuming the camera was held steady (there is an unconscious tendency to pan with a moving object) the coordinate system is quasi-fixed. It is realized that both of these coordinate systems are in actuality moving, possibly possessing both velocity and acceleration.

No altitude or azimuth determination can be made because of lack of background. The only measurable quantities of interest are therefore the relative angular distances between the objects and their time derivatives. Graphs of two typical time variations of relative angular separation and velocity are included (in Baker and Makemson (1967)). The relative angular velocity is seen to vary from zero to 0.006,5 radians per second. The relative angular acceleration had a maximum value of 0.003,6 radians per second squared. Supposing the

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*At the time he had already logged some 2,200 hours as a chief photographer with the Navy.

camera was kept stationary the average angular velocities for the object moving across the field are 0.039 and 0.031 radians per second. The angular velocities in these sequences sometimes vary erratically from 0.07 to 0.01 radians per second. This variation may be attributed in part to camera "jiggling" and in part to the object's motion. The decrease in average angular velocity could be due to the object's having regressed between filmings just as was reported by Newhouse. Also the average image diameter decreases about 30% over the entire film, indicating a possible over-all regression of the objects.

The following tabulation indicates the hypothetical transverse component of relative velocities and accelerations at various distances. It is noted that the transverse velocity may be only a fraction of the total velocity so that the numbers actually indicate minimum values.

The objects in the "Utah" and "Montana" films can only be correlated on the basis of two rather weak points. First, their structure, or rather lack of it, is similar. Thus as shown, in the "blow-ups" there are no recognizable differences between them*. Second, the objects on the "Montana" film are manifestly a single pair; on the "Utah" film perhaps 30% of the frames show clusters of objects seemingly also grouped in pairs.

The weather report was obtained by the author from the Airport Station at Salt Lake City. The nearest station with available data is Corinne which reported a maximum temperature of 84°, a minimum of 47° and no precipitation. A high pressure cell from the Pacific Northwest spread over Northern Utah during July 2, the pressure at Tremonton would have a rising trend, the visibility good, and the winds relatively light. The absence of clouds and the apparently excellent visibility shown on the films would seem to be in agreement with this report. Through use of References (2) and (3) the Sun's azimuth N132°E altitude 65° was computed. No shadows were available to confirm the time of filming.

The image size being roughly that of the Montana film (a few of the objects being perhaps 10% larger than the largest on the Montana) the same remarks as to airplane reflections apply, i.e., they might have been caused by Sun reflections from airplanes within one to three miles to the observer, although at these distances they should have been identified as conventional aircraft by the film or the observer. No specific conclusions as to Sun reflection angles can be drawn since the line of motion of the objects cannot be confirmed. However, the reported E to W motion of the UFO's and their passing overhead coupled with the SE azimuth of the Sun would make the achievement of optimal Sun reflections rather difficult.

That the images could have been produced by aluminum foil "chaff"** seems possible, at least on the basis of the images shown, as very intense specular Sun reflections from ribbons of chaff might flare out to about the size of the UFO's.

Examination of film frames obtained from the photogrammetric experiment -- reference Analysis of Photographic Material, Serial 01, Appendix II -- show that no significant broadening is produced by flat white diffuse reflectors such as birds, bits of paper, etc. at f/16 under the conditions of the filming. Actual measurements show a slight "bleeding" or flaring of about 10% to 20%.

The rectangular flat white cardboards of the aforementioned experiments represented very roughly the configuration of birds. The light reflected by such a surface is probably greater than that from a curved feather surface of a bird.

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*The images on the "Utah" film appear to be a little brighter. However, possible variations in development techniques would not allow quantitative analysis in this regard.

**Bits of aluminum foil dumped overboard by planes, often utilized as a countermeasure against antiaircraft radar. This material might possibly be in the form of large ribbons several feet long and several inches across.

One figure shows the appearance of one and two foot birds* as they might appear on a 16 mm frame taken with a 3" telephoto lens f/16 at a distance of 1,200', at 3,000' and at' 3,300'. Many of the images on the "Utah" film have an angular diameter of 0.001,2 radians (some as large as 0.001,16 radians), thus they might be interpreted as one foot (wing span) birds at 600' to 800', two foot (wing span) birds at 1,200' to 1,600' or three foot (wing span) birds at 2,400' to 3,200'. At these distances, it is doubted if birds would give the appearance of round dots; also they would have been identifiable by the camera if not visually. However, actual movies of birds in flight would have to be taken to completely confirm this conclusion. The following type of gulls have been know to fly at times over this locality: California Herring Gull (a common summer resident), Ring-Billed Gull and-the Fork-Tailed Gull, see Reference (4).

The images are probably not those of balloons as their number is too great and the phenomenon of flaring up to a constant brightness for several seconds, and then dying out again cannot well be associated with any known balloon observations.

Certain soaring insects -- notably "ballooning spiders" (References (5) and (6) ) produce bright-moving points of light. The author has witnessed such a phenomenon. It is produced by Sun reflections off the streamers of silken threads spun by many types of spiders. Caught by the wind, these streamers serve as a means of locomotion floating the spider high into the air. They occasionally have the appearance of vast numbers of silken flakes which fill the air and in some recorded instances extend over many square miles and to a height of several hundred feet. The reflection, being off silk threads, is not as bright as diffuse reflection from a flat white board. Thus no flaring of the images could be expected. The author noted that the sections of the "web" that reflected measured from ¼" to ½" for the largest specimens. Thus the images might be attributed to ballooning spiders at distances of 50 to 100 feet. However, these web reflections ordinarily show upon only against a rather dark background and it is doubted if their intensity would be great enough to produce the intense UFO images against a bright sky.

Besides the above remarks, pertinent to the actual images, several facts can be gleaned from the motion of objects. The observations are not apt to support the supposition that the objects were conventional aircraft as the maneuvers are too erratic, the relative accelerations probably ruling out aircraft at distances of over five miles. Several observers familiar with the appearance of chaff have seen the film and concluded that the persistence of the non-twinkling constellations, their small quantity, and the reported absence of aircraft overhead makes chaff unlikely. Furthermore, the single object passing across the field of view would be most difficult to explain on the basis of chaff. These same remarks would apply also to bits of paper swept up in thermal updrafts.

The relative angular velocity might be compatible with soaring bird speeds at distances of less than one mile, the angular velocity of the single object could be attributed to a bird within about one thousand feet. There is a tendency to pan with a moving object -- not against it -- so the velocities in the table probably represent a lower bound. The motion of the objects is not exactly what one would expect from a flock of soaring birds (not the slightest indication of a decrease in brightness due to periodic turning with the wind or flapping) and no cumulus clouds are present which might betray the presence of a strong thermal updraft. On the other hand the single object might represent a single soaring bird which broke away in search of a new thermal -- quite a common occurrence among gulls -- see Reference (7).

That the air turbulence necessary to account for their movement if they were nearby insects (even the single object's motion!) is possible, can be concluded from examination of Reference (8). However, if the objects were nearby spider webs the lack of observed or photographed streamers is unusual. Furthermore, the fact that they were visible from a moving car for several minutes is hard to reconcile with localized insect activity.

The phenomenon of atmospheric mirages, Reference (9), might conceivably account for the images. Such a hypothesis is hampered by the clear weather conditions and the persistence and clarity of the images. Also no "shimmering" can be detected and the motion is steady. Again the object which breaks away would be difficult to explain.

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*The dimensions refer to wing spread. The actual exposed white area of a bird is usually less and depends upon the perspective of the observer. This difference has been roughly accounted for in the data given, however, if the body were the principal reflector the distance given should be reduced by a factor of 2 or 3.

It has been suggested that spurious optical reflections or light leaks in the camera might be responsible. Examples of such effects have been examined and found to be quite different from the UFO's (in the Utah Film).

The evidence remains rather contradictory and no single hypothesis of a natural phenomenon yet suggested seems to completely account for the UFO involved. The possibility of multiple hypotheses, i.e. that the Utah UFO's are the result of two simultaneous natural phenomena might possibly yield the answer. However, as in the case of the "Montana" analysis, no definite conclusion (as to a credible natural phenomenon) could be obtained.

(1) The "American Nautical Almanac" 1950.

(2) H. O. No. 214, "Tables of Computed Altitude and Azimuth for Latitudes 40° to 49°."

(3) J. Veath, J. G. "200 Miles Up," Ronald Press Company, N.Y. Second Edition, 1955, p. 111.

(4) Kaiser, T. R., "Meteors," Pergamon Press, 1955.

(5) La Paz, L. "Meteoroids, Meteorites, and Hyperbolic Meteor Velocities," Chapt. XIX of the Physics and Medicine of the Upper Atmosphere.

(6) O. G.Farrington, "Meteorites," Chicago, 1915.

(7) "Measurement of Birds." Scientific Publications of the Cleveland Museum of Natural History, Vol. II, 1931.

(8) Kartright, F. H., "The Ducks, Geese and Swans of North America," American Wild Life Institute, 1943.

(9) Headley, F. W. "The Flight of Birds," Witherly and Co., 326 Holborn, London, 1912.

(10) Menzel, D. H., "Flying Saucers," Harvard University Press, 1953.

(11) Mees, C. E. K. "The Theory of the Photographic Process," Revised Edition, MacMillan Co., N.Y., 1954.

(12) Danjon, A., Conder, A. "Lunettes et Telescopes," Paris, 1935.

(13) Kuiper, G. P., "The Atmospheres of the Earth and Planets," University of Chicago Press, 1951.

(14) Ruppelt, E. J., "The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects," Doubleday and Co., 1956.

Blow Up of a frame from the Utah Film Depicting One of the Pairs of Objects

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Blow Up of a Frame from the Montana Film Depicting the Two Objects

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Microphotograph of One of the Frames of the Argentina Film that Exhibits the Luminosity of the Yellow, Pear-Shaped Anomalistic Object

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REFERENCES

1. Baker, R.M.L., Jr. (1956) "Analysis of Photographic Material Serial 01 and 02," Douglas Aircraft Report dated 24 March and 26 May l956.

2. Baker, R.M.L., Jr. (1967) Astrodynamics: Applications and Advanced Topics, Academic Press, New York, pp. 112-115 and pp. 376 to 392.

3. Baker, R.M.L., Jr. (1968a) "Observational Evidence of Anomalistic Phenomena," Journal of the Astronautical Sciences, Vol. XV, No. 1, pp. 31-36.

4. Baker, R.M.L. Jr. "Future Experiments on Anomalistic Observational Phenomena," Journal of the Astronautical Sciences, Vol. XV, No. 1, pp. 44-45.

5. Baker, R.M.L., Jr. and Ford, K.C. (1968) "Performance Analysis of Space-Population Cataloging Systems (U)," Secret, SAR, NOFORN Report completed under Air Force Contract F04701-68-C-0219 22 April 1968.

6. Baker, R.M.L., Jr. and Makemson, M.W. (1967) An Introduction to Astrodynamics, Second Edition, Academic Press, New York, pp. 328-330.

7. Fuller, J.G. (1966) Incident at Exeter, Putnam, New York.

8. Glover, K.M., Hardy, K.R., Konrad, T.G., Sullivan, W.N., and Michaels, A.S. (1966) "Radar Observations of Insects in Free Flight," Science, Vol. 154, pp. 967-972.

9. Hynek, J.A. (1966) Science, Vol. 154, p. 329,

10. Klass, P.J. (1968a) UFO's Identified, Random House, New York.

11. Klass,P.J. (1968b) Letter dated May 29, 1968.

12. Lamar, D.L. and Baker, R.M.L., Jr. (1965) "Possible Residual Effects of Tunguska-type Explosions on Desert Pavements," Presented at the 28th Annual Meeting of the Meteoritical Society in Odessa, Texas, October 21 to 24.

13. Markowitz, W. (1967) Science, Vol. 157, pp. 1274-1279.

14. McDonald, J. (1967) "The UFO Phenomenon -- A New Frontier Awaiting Serious Scientific Exploration," (An article on an interview with Dr. McDonald by Nyla Crone) Arizona Daily Wildcat, April 6, pp. 6 to 8.

15. Menzel, D.H. (1953) Flying Saucers, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass.

16. Minas, J.S. and Ackoff, R.L. (1964) "Individual and Collective Judgements," Chapt. 17 in Human Judgements and Optimality, Edited by M.W. Shelly, II and G. L. Bryan, John Wiley and Sons, New York, pp. 351-359.

17. O'Keefe, J.A. (1967) Letter dated October 26.

18. Page, T. (1968) "Photographic Sky Coverage for the Detection of UFO's," Science, Vol. 160, pp. 1258-1260.

19. Powers, W.T. (1967) "Analysis of UFO Reports," Science, 7 April, 1967, p. 11.

20. Robey, D.H. (1960) "A Hypothesis on the Slow Moving Green Fireballs," Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, Vol. 17, No. 11.

21. Rosa, R.J., Powers, W.T., Valee, J.F., Gibbs, T.R.P., Steffey, P.C., Garcia, R.A. and Cohen, G. (1967) Science, Vol. 158, pp. 1265-1266.

22. Shklovskii, L.S. and Sagan, C. (1966) Intelligent Life in the Universe, Holden-Day, Inc. San Francisco.

23. Singer, S. (1963) in Problems of Atmospheric and Space Electricity, edited by S. C. Coroniti, Elsevier Publishing Company, New York, p. 463.

24. Tacker, L.J. (1960) Flying Saucers and the United States Air Force, Van Nostrand, Princeton, New Jersey.

25. Walker, S., III (1968) "Establishing Observer Creditability: A Proposed Method," Journal of the Astronautical Sciences, Vol. XV, No. 2, pp. 92-96.

26. Wooldridge, D.E. (1968) Mechanical Man: The Physical Basis of Intelligent Life, McGraw-Hill, New York, Chapt. 19.